Christmas in July: Holiday Inventory Planning
July 20, 2026
It may be July, but if your business depends on holiday sales, Christmas has already started.
(Not the fun parts. Nobody is handing you cookies or pretending to enjoy office parties yet.)
This is the part where suppliers want deposits, shipping timelines get longer, and business owners have to spend a pile of money months before customers spend theirs.
Matt and I recently covered this in our Christmas in July video, and the main point was blunt for a reason: if you wait until November to figure out your holiday inventory, you have waited too damn long.
Customers Shop Later. You Pay Earlier.
Your customers may not start serious holiday shopping until November or December.
Your business has to start preparing well before that.
Before a single sale happens, you may need to pay for:
Inventory
Supplier deposits
Freight and shipping
Packaging and fulfillment
Seasonal employees
Advertising
Extra storage or warehouse space
Insurance, payroll, rent, and everyday operating expenses
This is where holiday inventory planning becomes a cash flow issue, not just a purchasing issue.
The shelves may be full. The warehouse may look impressive. Your online store may be ready for battle. Meanwhile, the bank account looks like somebody broke into it and took everything except the monthly fees.
A Strong Sales Season Can Still Cause a Cash Flow Problem
More demand usually means buying more inventory.
Buying more inventory means sending out more cash.
And that cash often leaves weeks or months before the revenue comes back.
That space between paying for inventory and collecting customer payments is your cash flow gap.
We’ve covered this in our Summer Cash Flow Gaps series because the problem is not limited to holiday businesses. Construction companies, retailers, wholesalers, manufacturers, restaurants, and service businesses can all run into the same basic problem:
The business is busy. Revenue is coming. The bills are due now.
A profitable season can still create financial pressure if the timing is bad. Profit and cash flow are related, but they are not the same thing. One looks lovely in a report. The other keeps payroll from becoming a deeply uncomfortable conversation.
Start With Supplier Deadlines
Good holiday inventory planning begins with dates.
Talk to your suppliers and get clear answers to a few basic questions:
When must orders be placed?
Is a deposit required?
When is the balance due?
How long will production take?
How long will shipping take?
Are seasonal delays expected?
Are prices, freight charges, or minimum orders changing?
Do not assume last year’s schedule still applies.
Suppliers change terms. Shipping costs move around. Production gets delayed. Ports get backed up. Someone, somewhere, misplaces a container full of the exact product you need.
In our Christmas in July video, Matt and I explain why these timelines matter so much. You cannot plan the funding, cash flow, or purchasing strategy until you know when the money has to leave.
Calculate the Full Cost
The supplier invoice is only part of the expense.
You also need to account for shipping, storage, staffing, packaging, marketing, insurance, vendor payments, and normal operating costs.
Start with five numbers:
How much inventory you need
When you need to order it
When payment is due
When you expect to sell it
When the sales revenue will actually reach your account
That last one matters.
A sale does not always mean immediate cash. Credit card processing delays, payment terms, wholesale accounts, returns, and marketplace payout schedules can all stretch the timeline.
Our Cash Flow Gap Calculator can help you estimate the difference between when cash goes out and when it comes back. It is not magic. It is math, which is less exciting but generally more useful.
Do Not Confuse Optimism With Forecasting
Holiday forecasts should be based on something more reliable than “people usually buy a lot of stuff.”
Review:
Previous holiday sales
Current sales trends
Inventory turnover
Customer demand
Existing orders
Product margins
Supplier minimums
Leftover inventory from prior seasons
Buying too little can cost you sales.
Buying too much can leave you entering January surrounded by unsold inventory and aggressively revised expectations.
The goal is not to order the biggest possible pile of merchandise. The goal is to order enough inventory to meet demand without strangling the rest of the business.
Plan Before the Rush Starts Making Decisions for You
Once you know what you need, when you need it, and what the full cost will be, you can figure out how the business will pay for it.
That may mean using existing cash, negotiating supplier terms, adjusting purchase quantities, or exploring inventory financing and working capital options. We will cover those funding choices separately because getting approved for money and getting the right money are two very different things.
For now, focus on the timeline. (Or if you don't want to wait, go ahead and schedule a call with us here.)
Christmas may feel months away, but your suppliers, shipping companies, and cash flow are already looking at the calendar.
Unfortunately, none of them believe in holiday miracles.