AI Didn’t Kill the Job Market (But Something Else Did)

If you’ve scrolled LinkedIn lately, you’ve probably seen “The Chart.” The one hysterical commentators are calling “the scariest chart in the world.”

S&P 500: up 70% since ChatGPT dropped.
Job openings: down 30%.
Cue the doom music. Roll in the “robots are stealing our jobs” crowd. Maybe add a Terminator GIF for dramatic effect.

But here’s the thing no one bothered to check before setting their hair on fire:
The timeline doesn’t match the narrative.

Let’s break this down like the reasonable, semi-caffeinated small business adults we are.

The Great AI Job Apocalypse… That Didn’t Happen

Job openings didn’t tank when ChatGPT showed up.
They didn’t even pause.
In fact, they peaked in March 2022, which just so happens to be the exact month the Federal Reserve said:

“You know what would be fun? Making borrowing painfully expensive.”

Rate hikes slammed the brakes on the economy faster than your accountant slams the brakes on your ‘creative’ tax ideas.

So while the internet was busy blaming Skynet 2.0, the real culprit was something far less glamorous: Monetary tightening.

Meanwhile, the industries with the biggest drop in job openings weren’t tech, AI, or anything remotely automated.

They were:

• Manufacturing

• Construction

• Energy extraction

All industries that rely on capital-intensive equipment - the stuff that gets dramatically more expensive when borrowing rates go up.

But sure… yeah… let’s blame the robots.

Meanwhile, in Economy #1: The Big AI Boom

You’ve got 30 AI-related companies (Nvidia, Microsoft, Meta, and their sparkly Silicon Valley friends) responsible for a ridiculous 44% of the entire S&P 500’s value.

Those companies alone have generated $5 trillion in household wealth gains this year.

This isn’t a rising tide lifting all boats.
It’s a rising tide lifting one very fancy yacht while the rest of us are yelling from the dinghy because gas went up another 40 cents.

We’re in two economies now:

Economy #1: The “AI Is Printing Money” Economy

Tech is booming. AI is fueling massive corporate profits. Developers are still one of the fastest-growing job categories. The Bureau of Labor Statistics projects 17.9% growth in software developer jobs through 2033. That’s almost five times the average.

Economy #2: The “Everything Else” Economy

This is where small business owners live:

• Higher interest rates.

• Chaotic supply chains.

• Tariffs.

• Labor shortages.

• Policy uncertainty.

Basically, it’s that scene in every disaster movie where the scientist screams, “We’re not prepared!” and everyone ignores him.

So… Is AI Affecting Jobs?

Yes—but not in the way the doomsday crowd wants you to think.

Stanford found that workers aged 22–25 in AI-exposed roles saw a 13% decline in employment. College grads are facing higher unemployment than we’ve seen in four years.

New tech always reshuffles the deck.
But that’s called progress, not panic.

And honestly? Most small business owners aren’t being replaced by AI—they’re being buried by:

• Higher interest costs

• Pricey capital equipment

• Slow hiring pipelines

• Restrictive immigration policy

• Supply chain volatility

AI isn’t smashing the labor market.
The macroeconomic environment is.

Blaming AI for the hiring slowdown is like blaming your phone for your insomnia when the real problem is you doomscrolling Zillow listings for houses you can’t afford at 2 a.m.

What This Means for Small Business Owners

Let’s get tactical for a second. Here’s how this messy two-economy reality hits real businesses:

1. Hiring Will Stay Weird for a While

Not impossible. Not collapsing. Just… weird. Think “your cousin’s new haircut” weird.

2. Borrowing Is Painful—But Not Forever

Rates won’t stay high forever. But for now? Tighten up your financials, build your credit, and avoid unnecessary debt.

3. AI Is a Tool, Not a Threat

Use it to automate admin garbage, speed up workflows, and improve customer experience—not to replace your entire team.

4. Opportunities Are Hiding in Plain Sight

The businesses that adopt tech strategically, not reactively, will widen the gap between themselves and competitors.

Think of AI as a new employee:
Useful, tireless, very smart…
…but absolutely still needs supervision.

Final Take

The fear-mongering around AI killing jobs makes for great headlines, but lousy economics.
The real forces squeezing the labor market are boring, predictable, and fixable: interest rates, trade restrictions, and structural policy choices.

You don’t need to fear AI.
You just need to understand the new landscape you’re operating in.

And if it helps you sleep at night:
AI isn’t coming for your job.
But your accountant might if you don’t stop expensing “team morale tequila shots.”